Some highlights from this weeks News Scan:

• California panel reaffirms carbon trading platform
• Climate change will hit genetic diversity
• Environment takes a dramatic decline as an issue of importance to Canadians

Authors: Neil Thomson, Neil Salmond, Calyn Shaw, Kristina Welch

Editors: James Tansey, Jessica Worsley

The PICS News Scan is produced by ISIS at the Sauder School of Business in partnership with the Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions (PICS). To be added to the News Scan distribution list or to provide content feedback and/or suggestions about interesting news items, please email: picsscan@uvic.ca.

RESEARCH THEME I: THE LOW CARBON EMISSIONS ECONOMY

California panel reaffirms carbon trading platform

August 25, 2011. The California Air Resources Board has approved a revised analysis of the use of cap-and-trade as an appropriate mechanism within the suite of tools in Bill AB 32 to reduce the state’s greenhouse gas emissions. The air board adopted a preliminary carbon-trading plan in late 2008, but was sued by environmental justice groups in 2009 resulting in a more comprehensive analysis of alternatives to the market-based trading system, such as a carbon tax or fee. The board completed the court order and concluded that cap-and-trade is still the most viable of the alternatives to achieve the goals of AB 32. California’s program would be North America’s biggest carbon market, three times larger than Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), a utility-only system in 10 northeastern states.

California is considering whether to work with Canada under the Western Climate Initiative (WCI), within which BC is a key stakeholder. If California were a separate country, it would rank number four as a destination for BC exports in 2009, when BC exported approximately $1.76 billion in goods and services to the state. That figure has been declining since 2001. BC hopes to link its emissions trading system with California’s when it comes on-line as part of the WCI. This linking of cap-and-trade systems will create an entirely new trading market, resulting in considerable economic activity for the province.

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-cap-trade-20110825,0,2698312.story

US energy-related carbon dioxide emissions, 2010

August 18, 2011. A US Energy Information Administration report states that energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in the US increased significantly in 2010 following a decline in 2009. The 2010 increase of 3.9 percent was the largest increase in the US since 1988. While the report recognizes the economic rebound as having contributed to the increase, it points to additional factors such as hot temperatures, low hydro-electricity availability, and increased coal use. The report maintains that just as 2009’s lower emissions were atypical, the increase in 2010 should not be seen as indicative of an ongoing future trend.

While the point is valid that data from a single year of data should not be used to predict future longer-term trends, it is feasible that many of the factors increasing energy-related CO2 emissions in 2010 will continue in the coming years as the hydrocarbon-based economy in the US continues to recover and the climate continues its warming trend. Factors based on electricity demand would not affect BC’s emissions in the same way, because of the province’s hydro-electric capabilities; indeed, low hydro-electricity availability in the US could result in increased demand for BC hydropower. Future US regulation on coal-fired power plants and coal prices would also affect the demand for BC hydro-electricity.

http://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/carbon/?src=email

RESEARCH THEME II: SUSTAINABLE COMMUNITIES

Time to begin anticipating and adapting to climate change

August 19, 2011.  Following a two-day summit at Vanderbilt University, leading stakeholders from America’s freight transportation industry reached a consensus that despite the uncertainties surrounding climate change, it is time to start developing effective strategies to keep America’s transportation systems and other critical infrastructure running in the face of the adverse impacts that are likely to occur. The summit sponsored by the Vanderbilt Center for Transportation Research (VECTOR), Vanderbilt Institute for Energy and Environment (VIEE) and the Intermodal Freight Transportation Institute at the University of Memphis brought together major stakeholders from the $1 trillion-plus freight transportation sector with climate change researchers to discuss this issue for the first time. The summit discussions identified several reasons for the current lack of action in the US: 1) uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of climate change; 2) insufficient knowledge of how these changes will impact the performance of critical infrastructure systems; 3) the succession of short-term crises that deflect attention and resources; and, 4) lack of political leadership.

This summit put forward key initiatives that are relevant to policy-makers in British Columbia. The province’s 2008 Climate Action Plan (see Background section) identifies the threat climate change poses to provincial infrastructure and the challenge this presents for local communities. The plan proposes recognizing climate change impacts in awarding infrastructure grants through the BC Ministry of Community, Sport and Cultural Development. Two recommendations from the summit stand out as particularly important for BC at this time: (1) assessing the cost of impacts on key infrastructure components, as putting a dollar value on the potential damage for non-action helps determine the benefits of proposed protective measures; and (2) developing better tools and models for performing risk assessments. Right now, climate models are more accurate at the global and regional scale, but they are less capable of predicting the local effects that planners need.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/08/110822092321.htm

RESEARCH THEME III: RESILIENT ECOSYSTEMS

Climate change will hit genetic diversity

August 21, 2011. Climate change is expected to not only affect species survival but also the genetic diversity within a single species, according to a recent article published in Nature Climate Change. Known as evolutionary significant units (ESUs), the sub-species of a larger population may be impacted differently or have differing abilities to adapt, prompting large extinctions of some populations within a species. This loss of genetic diversity, a requirement for evolution, could further jeopardize a species survival. The implications of this research are that climate change will affect species more profoundly and in ways not previously anticipated, and also complicates conservation efforts, since genetic diversity is required for the long-term survival of a species. The report’s authors, in previous work, estimated that climate change could lead to the extinction of 18-35% of all species on earth.

Genetic diversity is nature’s solution for helping species adapt over time; without it, species would succumb to disease or changing habitats. In British Columbia, the Cohen Commission is currently reviewing the causes of declining sockeye salmon runs, and reduced genetic diversity may be a contributing factor. Decreasing genetic diversity is also being blamed for many of the issues that plague farmed salmon and other industrialized farming practices. Policies that strive to identify and maintain existing genetic diversity within a particular species, as a means of adapting to climate change, may help to reduce biodiversity loss across a wide range of species.

http://www.nature.com/news/2011/110821/full/news.2011.490.html?s=news_rss

Climate change forces species to move to higher ground, latitudes: study

August 22, 2011. Species are being forced to move to higher ground or further north, at rates higher than anticipated, according to a meta-analysis recently published in the journal Science. The report draws on data for over 2000 animal and plant species. Species have moved further north at three times the expected rate, and moved to higher latitudes at double the expected rate, demonstrating the impact of climate change on animals and plants. The implications are that those species with the ability to migrate and find a suitable climate may survive, while other species that have limited mobility or nowhere to go must either adapt or face extinction.

In Canada, the gray jay, robin, bog copper and giant swallowtail butterflies are among the species that have migrated northward. However, only the more resilient species can make this shift, resulting in diminished diversity and a less healthy ecosystem. According to researchers at the University of Ottawa, “Inuit communities are encountering species their traditional languages don’t even have words for.” Earlier this year, BC released a report by the BC Task Force on Species at Risk, outlining policy recommendations for better protection of endangered and at-risk species. Mountain regions, such as those found in BC, are particularly susceptible to species extinction, as plants and animals already at higher elevations have nowhere to migrate to. BC, with its high rates of biodiversity, faces increased risk of extinctions if species with reduced abilities to migrate are not supported through specific conservation efforts.  While research indicates that ‘latitudinal and elevational migration corridors’ are part of the toolkit for supporting endangered species, additional efforts will be required for those species that are unable to migrate, particularly those in alpine environments.

http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/201528/20110822/species-climate-change-global-warming-higher-ground-latitudes.htm

RESEARCH THEME IV: SOCIAL MOBILIZATION

Environment takes a dramatic decline as an issue of importance to Canadians

August 18, 2011. According to Bensimon Byrne’s latest Consumerology Report, Canadians no longer see the environment as one of the top five issues facing the country, with only 49 percent ranking it as ‘very important’. Concern has fallen significantly since 2008 and now ranks behind issues such as the price of gas, adequate pensions, the state of the economy and ethics in politics as issues that are very important to Canadians. The report states that the majority of Canadians believe being environmentally responsible is unaffordable and only 23 percent of Canadians report being very motivated to make personal changes to benefit the environment. The report goes on to say that Canadians are still suspicious of environmental marketing claims and want government to regulate this. Also, the term ‘green’ is even more widely used and devoid of meaning than it was three years ago.

Unfortunately, the report doesn’t go as far as to divide the survey results by province. It would be interesting for BC policy-makers to know if the opinions of British Columbians are consistent with the Canada-wide results of this survey. A June 2011 poll by the Pembina Institute, indicates that the opinions of British Columbians may diverge from the national results. According to this poll, 69 percent of British Columbians are worried about global warming and 70 percent support the province being a leader in taking action to solve the problem. Also differing from the national numbers, British Columbians express a high degree of confidence that taking action on climate change will either help grow the economy (36%) or will have little or no impact on the economy (44%).

http://www.globe-net.com/articles/2011/august/18/environment-takes-a-dramatic-decline-as-an-issue-of-importance-to-canadians.aspx

Week 101 PICS News Scan 30 August 2011

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